According to various sources, the global economic outlook is projected to slow down in the coming years. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report states that global growth is set to slow further in 2024 amid tight monetary policy, restrictive financial conditions, and feeble global trade and investment.
The OECD Economic Outlook also projects a slowdown in global growth, with a projected growth rate of 2.7% in 2024, down from 2.9% in 2023.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024, projects that global growth will stay at 3.1% in 2024 and rise to 3.2% in 2025, with elevated central bank rates to fight inflation.
The Conference Board’s Global Economic Outlook report states that the global economy exhibited greater-than-expected resilience in 2023 in the face of aggressive interest rate hikes, but Purchasing Managers’ Indices suggest the global economy lost momentum, conforming to the expectation of slower growth in 2024.
The report also notes that the main drivers of slower growth are the still accumulating impact of last year’s interest rate hikes, diminishing support of past fiscal stimulus programs, and absorbing price increases into profit margins.
Despite the projected slowdown in global growth, there are some positive developments. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024, notes that disinflation and steady growth have reduced the likelihood of a hard landing, and risks to global growth are broadly balanced.
The report also states that stronger structural reform momentum could bolster productivity with positive cross-border spillovers.
In conclusion, the global economic outlook is projected to slow down in the coming years due to various factors such as tight monetary policy, restrictive financial conditions, and feeble global trade and investment. However, there are some positive developments, such as disinflation and steady growth, which have reduced the likelihood of a hard landing, and risks to global growth are broadly balanced.
